Lower tail estimation with Chernoff bound and its application for balancing electricity load by storage admission

Rajmund Drenyovszki, Lorant Kovacs, Kalman Tornai, Andras Olah and Istvan Pinter


In this paper we investigate the applicability of the Chernoff in- equality in finding an upper bound on the probability of the lower tail of the aggregate load. The importance of Demand Side Man- agement (DSM) programs in power networks has increased re- cently, especially because of the new challenges like intensive use of renewable energy sources (wind, photovoltaic) and the ex- pected high penetration of Electric Vehicles (EV). We show that Chernoff bound has the potential to be incorporated in DSM algo- rithms to integrate energy storage (e.g. batteries) elements into the power grid and facilitate load shifting.


Keywords: Large Deviation Theory, Chernoff bound, valley filling, smart grid, Demand Side Management,


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